What was first noticed as a niggling sore throat at a Chinese market has gone on to infect millions of people across the world. The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spreads stealthily through human hosts, many of whom remain more or less asymptomatic… but some of whom fall seriously ill, and don’t always survive.
So what has happened?
The world is in lockdown. The price of oil has dropped so low due to travel restrictions that (in theory) some producers will pay you to take it away. The legendary hedge fund manager who famously predicted the 2008 financial crisis, Ray Dalio, has warned economies are not just in recession, but entering a global depression. So while bankers tally their losses, economists scratch their heads and the rest of us look woefully at our bank balances, he’s already anticipating a new world order. A restructuring of the financial system, the like of which we’ve not seen since 1945. In effect, this has called into question the very paradigm of globalised capitalism.
For unlike most crises, this pandemic is affecting humanity as a whole, transcending borders and socioeconomic strata. Employees in jobs they believed perfectly secure have been laid off, or if they’re lucky sent on (part-/un-)paid leave. Corporate giants beg for bailouts, as governments scramble to roll out economic stimulus schemes that can’t save them all. Small businesses and freelancers are in financial dire straits, since they lack the capital reserves to survive until emergency loans are issued.
And what does that mean?
Many people are unable to repay mortgages, credit card bills and other debts most societies previously held up as signifiers of success. Many more, especially in the developing world, have limited or no access to healthcare and go hungry. Especially, day labourers in countries like India face an impossible dilemma – go to work and risk infection, or stay home and starve. And this is just the beginning. The World Food Programme is forecasting “famines of biblical proportions” in Africa and beyond. Which puts our typically less life-threatening first world problems in perspective.
But for me the most harmful and ubiquitous consequence of COVID-19 is the least tangible. Fear has become more contagious than the virus itself. People fear the disease, fear the cure, fear mobile phone masts, Asian food and philanthropists. And it threatens to divide us and hinder our response at a time when universal collaboration is more crucial than ever.
What’s feeding this divisive fear?
I think it’s a combination of factors, which overlap significantly:
Failures of leadership
World leaders representing a significant proportion of the global population – chiefly Donald Trump – were initially slow to act, delivering half-baked responses. And even now some premiers continue to deny the pandemic or issue statements that seem designed to confuse the public. More occupied with political point-scoring and saving face than effective risk management, they brush aside scientific advisors in favour of spin doctors. Which erodes trust in authority and deflects attention away from real risks. Such as the need to address the way we farm and interact with animals. As well as the damaging link between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality.
So, as worried citizens pose the kind of questions that would previously have been dismissed in most circles as laughably academic. “Where do novel coronaviruses originate?” “How safe are vaccines?” “Will life ever be the same again..?” They too often draw the answers from wild speculation.
Disinformation
Conspiracy theorists have concocted an array of absurdly improbable explanations for the origins and impacts of COVID-19. Which flood social media streams in the guise of innocent-looking memes and purportedly clandestine exposés. With such success that people from all walks of life suspend their better judgement and begin to doubt the intentions of public health experts, the wisdom of medical science; even the laws of physics.
And while these might appear to be the harmless inventions of eccentric Facebook f(r)iends, these conspiracy theories are routinely propagated for ulterior motives by politically funded “news” sources and authoritarian states using troll farms. In some cases career propagandists will have designed them, using psychological warfare techniques to draw us in through curiosity, and of course fear.
Here’s a handful of choice examples:
- Russia wants to blame the West for the outbreak and defend its ally China against allegations they tried to cover it up. So it claims Bill Gates created coronavirus in a lab.
- Iran wants to foment aggression towards Israel? So it tells Arabs that Jews spread coronavirus.
- There’s mounting speculation China is encouraging its citizens to blame African migrant workers for coronavirus. Presumably to distract from its failings in handling the crisis.
- The NRA wants gunmakers to make more sales. So it tells Americans coronavirus causes crime.
- As yet unidentified groups seek to associate 5G technology with coronavirus. Resulting in numerous arson attacks and harassment of telecoms engineers around the globe.
Perhaps the next time someone you know gives oxygen to one of these crackpot theories, consider pointing out they might be a pawn in a state-backed propaganda campaign. If you’re feeling particularly proactive you could report their post as fake news, or direct them to independent fact-checking resources Snopes and PolitiFact. Besides, the truth these days is so strange that dealing in fiction is overkill.
Opportunism
Meanwhile keyboard radicals and irresponsible marketeers seize this opportunity to peddle their alternative facts and quack remedies. (No, you should not rely on kale smoothies and moringa powder to “boost” your immunity.) And of course those who dare call them out on their BS are dismissed as elitists, conformists; slaves to the system and Big Pharma. I was on the receiving end of one such jibe when I attempted to defend initiatives to develop a vaccine for this coronavirus.
“Herd immunity, not herd mentality”, I was cautioned. A pernicious comment as it promotes the controversial strategy of allowing the virus to spread through the population until eventually, maybe, enough of us develop natural immunity… those who survive that is. Which an alarming number of anti-vaxxers apparently prefer to getting a perfectly harmless jab. Something researchers have safety tested to the nth degree before regulators ever license it for use. A vaccine is still some way off, but there is a serious risk that when a mass immunisation programme for coronavirus does come about, it could be undermined by even a small minority refusing to participate. As we’ve seen with the resurgence in measles caused by vaccine sceptics in a number of countries.
Information overload
In this age of technology, we’re constantly bombarded with information. And since sorting the scarce wheat from the abundant chaff is so time-consuming, special interest groups find it easy to harness irrational fear with false information and push their agenda. You don’t have to do much research to realise there’s no evidence for the many fabricated versions of events circulating the internet. Yet precisely because they stoke fear they spread more easily than mundane facts.
Convincing people of the simple truth that this coronavirus is a naturally evolved molecule with no conception of ethnicity, nationality, wealth, status or political persuasion; is best controlled by hand washing and social distancing; and is probably best prevented with a vaccine, is easier said than done. And the sad truth is the more cynics fail to follow simple WHO guidance because they get carried away with exercising their freedom to question “the Man”, the more of us will be infected and possibly die.
Poor understanding of risk management
“The threat of contamination can lead to “mass psychogenic illness” in which people avoid things like gluten, vaccines, or windmills, simply because others do.”
A quote from an article entitledThe Psychology of Irrational Fear, published during the 2014 ebola outbreak in West Africa. Sound familiar?
Now there are complex biological mechanisms governing fear. But I have zero expertise in psychology so I won’t attempt to explain them here. There’s even a new hypothesis that just reading about this pandemic can worsen clinical outcomes. My point is we have long known fear to be irrational, and infectious. The things people fear most are often the least likely to happen, and the most emotive. Serial killings, terrorist attacks and plane crashes. Whereas what will likely kill them is boring old lifestyle choices. Or perhaps a looming global catastrophe we fail to prepare for.
But now more than ever it’s clear that a significant minority simply don’t grasp the concept of risk management. Just look at pro-Trump Americans protesting against social distancing. Baited by claims of Democratic governor overreach and the “deep state” conspiracy theory, which unsurprisingly are linked to the Republican Party. These unwitting stooges are breaking lockdowns and risking exposure to a known dangerous virus. Because they’re afraid of an imagined malevolent force that’s demonstrably untrue, and therefore poses no risk to them.
Then there’s the attacks on healthcare workers. People overcome with delusional fear of infection by doctors, nurses and paramedics are assaulting the very people who can save them if they get sick. Thereby endangering multiple lives when they should be at home with their feet up, perfectly safe. Or consider the panic buyers making unnecessary trips to supermarkets to stockpile toilet paper. More concerned with wiping their bum in comfort than avoiding the virus, their selfishness forces others to trawl for essential supplies and impedes social distancing.
How can this risk unite us?
Selfless commitment
It’s not all doom and gloom. Doctors, nurses and paramedics on the front lines struggle valiantly alongside technicians, carers and porters to diagnose illness, stem infection and save lives. Epidemiologists, virologists, biochemists and a plethora of other -ists crunch data and connect microscopic dots to identify useful medicines and develop new vaccines faster than ever before. Supermarket staff, truck drivers and other newly minted essential workers feed us and keep critical industries ticking over. Armies of soldiers and volunteers compromise their own safety to conduct testing and help the vulnerable. Most of these everyday folk are under-appreciated public servants and low paid workers.
And what brings this motley crew of unlikely heroes together? Not fear. But risk. And specifically risk management. Working for the greater good, they sacrifice their individual freedoms and personal safety to minimise our exposure to risk. For which they certainly deserve much better treatment going forward.
Effective risk management
Good leaders, notably women like New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, are taking this crisis as an opportunity to manage risk sensibly. By reacting quickly to real threats and communicating effectively. In order to set the conditions for their citizens to make informed decisions about risk management, rather than succumbing to fear. Scientists have been warning for decades that a global pandemic is inevitable. Inevitable! And still most governments were woefully underprepared. But we are where we are and we’re in this together.
So instead of searching for scapegoats and supping snake oil, it’s vital that all leaders embrace and enforce collective preventative measures to stop the spread and minimise the death toll. Thankfully the responsible majority of people are abiding by the restrictions imposed in most countries. But it’s important leaders also take measures to win over those who continue to compromise the strategy by taking avoidable risks. And unsurprisingly the best measure to combat misinformation is to share official facts as widely and regularly as possible.
Reassessing future risks
Scientists have also been warning for decades that manmade climate change is leading us towards a disaster of apocalyptic scale. But we’ve not taken that too seriously either. We generally struggle to appreciate such grand, inevitable risks when they don’t feel personal or immediate. It’s a certainty each of us will die. Yet thanks to our innate self-preservation instinct, most of us don’t make a habit of walking into traffic and jumping off cliffs. But when it comes to something abstract like preserving the planet, we tend to be less concerned. That is, until it starts to affect us personally.
Will this crisis change humanity’s attitude to risk management for the better?
I am hopeful this current crisis will precipitate a shift in our attitude towards global risks like pandemics and catastrophic climate change. I’ve certainly seen potential to limit environmental damage in the way we respond to coronavirus. But I remain sceptical because our collective inertia to address risks we can’t relate to is so ingrained, it will be difficult to overcome. So think about the part you can play. And the meaningful steps you want leaders to take so we can all live better, longer, and more sustainably.
Whatever your role in society, aim to develop a healthy attitude to risk and make decisions based on facts. And as painful as it is, empathise with those who fall into a rabbit hole of fear. Instead of alienating them and adding fuel to the fire, try to educate them softly about the facts and get them back on track. Because effective risk management at a global scale must be a team effort. And as challenging as it might be, it has the power to unite humanity like never before.